Well, Ian Desmond finally signed. Over the weekend, the Nationals’ former shortstop inked a one year, $8 million deal with the Texas Rangers. With Elvis Andrus entrenched at Texas’ shortstop position, Desmond is expected to move to leftfield.
It has been quite the precipitous fall for Desmond, who reportedly turned down a a seven year, $107 million extension from the Nationals following the 2014 season. But after a lackluster 2015 campaign, Desmond not only cost himself $99 million, he was also forced off his natural position at shortstop. It is hard to feel bad for someone making $8 million, but I have several thoughts about Desmond’s free agency disaster.
First of all, Desmond did deserve that original $107 million extension. Plenty of Nats fans bristled at giving Desmond that kind of money, but let’s finally give him his due. Ian Desmond was one of baseball’s top three shortstops from 2012-2014.
Over that three-year span, Desmond blasted 69 total home runs. He averaged over 81 RBIs and 22 stolen bases per year. He rated as above average defensively, and compiled a 13.5 total WAR during that period, according to Fangraphs. He even finished in the top three for shortstops in OPS every season from 2012-2014. That’s better than Tulowitzki! The Nationals had one of the game’s most underappreciated stars in Ian Desmond.
2015 was obviously a rough season for Desmond. He has always been a streaky hitter, prone to prolonged slumps. This slump just happened to come at the worst possible time: in a contract year. Heading into the all-star break, Desmond was batting .211/.255/.334. By the time he snapped out of it (he hit .262/.331/.446 after the break – right in line with his peak numbers of the previous three seasons), the book had already been written on him. He was on the wrong side of 30, at a position that does not age well, and he was not going to be with the Nationals past 2015. Still, he had put up 3.5 good seasons in the last four. He finished in the top 10 for shortstops in OPS last year. Surely there would be a solid multi-year deal out there for him.
What happened to Desmond was basically the perfect storm of unluckiness. Two things really suppressed his value. One, he had a draft pick attached to him, and two, more than a few teams are looking past 2016.
After 2015, the Nationals extended Desmond a courtesy qualifying offer of one year, $15.8 million, knowing Desmond would turn this down as he hunted multiple years. When he did in fact decline the offer, it meant whoever signed Desmond in free agency would be forced to give the Nats a compensatory first round draft pick. As all of baseball become more draft conscious, teams were hesitant to cough up a pick.
There also happen to be more teams than usual who have no shot at winning this year. The Braves, Brewers, Phillies, Reds, and Rockies are undoubtedly playing for the future. They have no reason to sign Desmond to a multiple-year deal, when they do not appear to have a chance to contend for longer than the potential contract. These five teams, along with the other 16 or so teams who were content with their current shortstop status, really shrank Desmond’s market. With only about nine teams willing to go after him, these teams either did not want to give up the draft pick, or spent their resources elsewhere, and preferred to go with a cheaper, younger option at shortstop.
Now, Desmond has been relegated to a pillow deal at a brand new position. Most of his value came from his offense, and while it is quite impressive at the weak hitting shortstop position, it does not rate nearly as well when compared to the mashers at the corner outfield spots. He certainly has an uphill climb, as he looks to hit the open market once again a year from now.
Hopefully, the Rangers’ bandbox of a ballpark will help Desmond rebuild his value, because Desi truly seems like one of the good guys in baseball. The last remaining Montreal Expo in the Nats’ organization has officially left the building.