Washington Nationals: Ryan Zimmerman’s quest to break franchise records

Earlier this week, Washington Nationals closer Jonathan Papelbon moved into a tie for tenth place all-time in saves. Papelbon is now tied with Troy Percival with 358 career saves, and sits nine saves behind former Montreal closer Jeff Reardon, who currently holds ninth place.

All this Papelbon legacy talk got me thinking about where first baseman Ryan Zimmerman and his career numbers stand. Obviously, he is nowhere near all-time numbers, but Zimmerman, now in his twelfth season in DC, is finally at the point where we can talk about his ranks within the Nats/Expos franchise.

Zimmerman’s contract runs through the 2020 season, which means it is feasible for him to top all six of these categories by the time he is 36 years old (he turns 32 in September). Let’s start with the easy ones. Zim only trails home run leader Vlad Guerrero by 33 blasts. Even though he is sitting on one lonely long ball for the season, the power is still there (he hit 16 home runs in a mere 95 games last year). He is a lock to grab this category, possibly even as soon as 2017. Doubles also look like a shoo-in. Tim Wallach is a mere 33 doubles ahead; Zimmerman should be able to nab this by 2017, as well. Hits look pretty doable, too. Zimmerman only needs to average 87 hits for the next three seasons to pass Wallach.

Runs and RBIs will be a little tougher, but are still reachable. Wallach is only 113 RBIs ahead, which Zim should be able to take over by 2018 at the latest. Raines is 198 runs clear of Zimmerman, which would take three good seasons to attain. Does Zimmerman have three good seasons left? Does he have three average seasons left?

It all depends on games played. Tim Raines is 452 games ahead, which is less than three full seasons. But even if we pencil in the oft-injured Zimmerman for 135 games a year, it would still take him until 2019 to catch Raines. The real problem is that Zim has played in 110 games or less four times in his career (including both 2014 and 2015). It is optimistic to think his durability will improve as he ages. Still, with some injury luck, he could make it.

Zimmerman’s career has a lot of “what could’ve been.” If he had been even moderately healthy throughout his career, he would probably lead most, if not all, of the above categories by now. But there were injuries, and they have sapped a lot of what made him the special third baseman when he first joined the big leagues . If Zimmerman puts up simply average numbers for the rest of his contract, he’ll take all six of those categories. But how likely is that to happen? How likely is it that he even makes it to 2020 in a Nationals’ uniform? His drop-off in recent years has been substantial (2006-10: 23.4 total WAR/2011-15: 10.5 total WAR).

Zim has been the face of the franchise since day one of baseball in Washington. No one wants to see him go. But as we ponder what it will take for him to break franchise records, it automatically makes us wonder if he will be around long enough to have the chance.