When the Washington Nationals signed 39-year-old Bronson Arroyo to a one-year, $2 million deal in January, it appeared they were just taking a flier on a veteran pitcher, as he had not thrown in major league action since undergoing Tommy John surgery in July 2014. But this spring, Arroyo worked his way into the conversation as another option to current fifth starter Tanner Roark. Arroyo definitely has a case for the last rotation spot. However, today’s shoulder injury also shows why the Nationals should be leery of going with Arroyo in 2016.
Arroyo has been one of the most dependable pitchers in baseball throughout his career. He eats innings at an incredible rate, and outside of his recent Tommy John surgery, he has proven to be extremely durable. From 2004-2013, he averaged 31 starts and 203 innings per year. According to Fangraphs, he put up a WAR between 1.2 and 3.4 in eight of those 10 seasons. You know what Arroyo is going to give you; six or seven innings of three run ball each night. Getting a quality start from your fifth starter every time out isn’t flashy, but it has real value, and it is something the Nats were not always getting last season. New manager Dusty Baker also has a comfort level with Arroyo, which he does not yet have with Roark; Baker managed Arroyo in Cincinnati from 2008-13.
Slotting Arroyo into the rotation also allows for a deeper bullpen. By starting Arroyo, Roark could take over the last spot in the pen, where his recent experience in relief would round out an already solid group. Moving Arroyo into the rotation also creates more depth throughout the organization, as youngsters Lucas Giolito and AJ Cole can spend more time developing in Triple A. The Nationals and Arroyo have a contractual agreement which forces the Nats to inform Arroyo of his rotation status five days before Spring Training ends. If Arroyo and Roark perform comparably in the spring, naming Arroyo as a starter allows the Nats to keep two major league quality pitchers.
But now that Arroyo is being forced to miss today’s start with shoulder soreness, this plan might come with too many risks, especially for a contending team. Of course, a 39-year-old coming off Tommy John surgery is far from a guarantee, even if Arroyo has always survived without dominant stuff. But now with the bum shoulder, Arroyo’s health becomes even more of a red flag. He could very easily blow up early in the season. And while the Nats have Roark in case of emergency, he did not pitch particularly well when flipping between relief and starter roles last season. Roark posted a 1.51 ERA out of the bullpen in 2013, and a 2.85 ERA as a starter in 2014, but when tasked with switching between both in 2015, he put up a 4.38 ERA and gave up home runs twice as often as the prior season. Shifting Roark back to the bullpen is not an automatic answer, because if Arroyo or someone else breaks down, Roark has not shown the ability to seamlessly transfer from reliever to starter.
This Spring Training is not about stats for Arroyo. It is about proving that he can pitch every fifth day, while still showing the ability to get outs at the major league level. If he can bounce back from this shoulder soreness and finish the month strong, Arroyo should have a place on this team. Depth is crucial to success, especially when it comes the pitching staff. Keeping Arroyo creates the most depth and allows the Nationals more flexibility during the season.