The Washington Nationals are in the postseason for the third time in five years, yet they are still searching for their first series win as a franchise. The Los Angeles Dodgers are now in the playoffs for the fourth straight season, but are looking to get back to the NLCS for the first time since 2013. Let’s look at some stats to keep in mind throughout the matchup.
Clayton Kershaw is 8-0 with a 0.88 ERA against Washington since 2012
Kershaw tossed seven strong innings against the Nats in June, striking out eight and allowing just one run, but that actually raised his ERA over that span against Washington. Still, the Nationals were the fourth-best team in baseball offensively against left-handers this season, and while those numbers do include slugging catcher Wilson Ramos, those numbers are also missing about 90 games from Trea Turner.
Kershaw: 4.59 ERA over 64.2 IP in the playoffs
While Kershaw has been a dirty dawg throughout the regular season, for some reason he hasn’t been close to the same guy in the playoffs. His walks spike, he allows more home runs, and his pitch count soars. It’s naïve to think that the playoffs are somehow in his head (he allowed just one run over seven innings in his last playoff start against the Mets), but Daniel Murphy did get to him last season, and Bryce Harper has always stepped up when October rolls around.
Game 2 starter Rich Hill hasn’t thrown more than 5.1 IP in any of his last three outings.
Out of nowhere, Hill has been one of the best starters in baseball the last 13 months. Still, he has struggled with blisters this season, and over his previous three starts (spread over 15 days), he was unable to pitch deep into games. The Dodgers do have a top-notch bullpen, but if the Nats can break into it early, they’ll have the chance to expose the underbelly of every pitching staff: the middle relievers.
Speaking of bullpens, the Dodgers and Nationals have the two best in baseball
Manager Dave Roberts has worked this LA bullpen beautifully in his first season on the job. Joe Blanton, Adam Liberatore, and Pedro Baez are the key set-up guys, but closer Kenley Jansen is the real ticket at the end of the line. Jansen collected 47 saves with a sparkling 1.83 ERA, and dazzled with a 9.45 K/BB rate. Still, there is one place where the Nationals can get him. Jansen is second in baseball among relievers with a 54.6 percent fly ball rate, but he has only allowed 4 home runs all season, keeping his ERA down. All those fly balls are due to land in the seats sometime, and the powerful Nats are just the team to take advantage (Washington launched 203 homers this year, fourth in the NL).
On the other side, this Nats ‘pen is just as good as the Dodgers. 2016 is another notch in manager Dusty Baker’s bullpen belt (Baker has now seen his teams finish in the top seven in bullpen ERA in 12 of his 15 seasons). Closer Mark Melancon has been big-time the past four seasons, but his Pirates never had much postseason success. Part of that falls on Melancon’s shoulders, when he surrendered four runs in 3.2 innings in 2013, which undoubtedly scares Nats fans who have seen their fair share of closer struggles in recent playoffs.
The Dodgers are the worst team in baseball against lefties.
Los Angeles cannot hit lefties. It’s as simple as that. This season, they batted a miserable .213/.290/.332 against southpaws. Corey Seager’s OPS is 216 points lower vs lefties, Adrian Gonzalez posted a pitiful .598 OPS, and right-hander Justin Turner even posted a below-average .640 OPS. Gio Gonzalez becomes critical in this series, as do the lefties in the bullpen. Unfortunately for the Nationals, Gonzalez had a rough September, allowing 19 earned runs over just 23 innings. Gio did toss six innings of one-run ball in a win against LA back in July, but that was in the middle of one of his hottest stretches of the season. Gonzalez just got crushed in five starts, all against under .500 teams (Pittsburgh, Arizona, Philadelphia, and two against Atlanta).
Stolen bases could turn the series
Dave Roberts knows all too well how stolen bases can affect a series, but the Nationals have the advantage here. Washington finished sixth in swiping bags this season, while the station-to-station Dodgers slogged their way to 27th. Trea Turner is the obvious threat for the Nats; Turner stole a whopping 33 bases in just 73 games, and will make pitchers work anytime he gets on base. The Dodgers’ staff was fairly stingy in limiting stolen bases this season, but the Nationals’ base running edge could tilt the series in their favor.
The Nationals are the better team. Injuries have shrunk the gap between the two clubs, but Washington should win this series, Kershaw and all. Previous postseasons felt like the year. 2012 felt like the year. 2014 felt like the year. In the end, though, the Nats lacked that killer instinct to finish off the opponent when the time struck (Game 5 against St. Louis in 2012, and Game 2 against San Francisco in 2014 immediately come to mind). 2016 doesn’t feel like the year. But that might be just what this team needs to make it their year.
Also, they have this:
Yeah, it’s their year.