David Robertson is admittedly not that good. He is nowhere near the elite Aroldis Chapman-Andrew Miller-Zach Britton level of closer, and he is still a significant way away from that next group of Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, and Mark Melancon. In fact, Robertson doesn’t really give much of an upgrade over Shawn Kelley, who would likely be the Nationals closer if Opening Day was tomorrow.
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Robertson has several flaws. His strikeout rate dipped in 2016, his walk rate spiked dramatically (from 1.85 free passes per nine innings to 4.62), and he has two years, $25 million left on his deal. He finished 41st among relievers in WAR last season (according to Fangraphs), but he will be one of the ten highest paid relievers come 2017. Still, there are plenty of reasons for the Nats to go out and get him.
First of all, they simply need someone. They whiffed on Melancon, Chapman, and Jansen, and talented (albeit lesser) names such as Brad Ziegler and Koji Uehara signed elsewhere. But if the Nats truly want to contend, they will be hard-pressed to go into the season with their current crop of relievers. Kelley, Blake Treinen, Sammy Solis, Koda Glover and others do not exactly strike fear in the opponents’ heart, especially while other playoff contenders are shortening the games to six or seven innings.
Second, the Nationals wouldn’t have to give up that much to get him. The Chicago White Sox are in sell mode, and have no need for a $12 million-per-year closer with a rising walk rate. An added bonus is that the White Sox and Nationals know each other well. They were reportedly very close on a Chris Sale deal, and ended up making a trade for Adam Eaton. If the White Sox are willing to eat part of Robertson’s contract, then they probably have a good feel for the Nats prospect they would want back in return. If Chicago just wants to free up money, then the Nationals can toss in a bit prospect, and move on from there. These two teams have the potential to move quickly on a deal with each other.
Also, even though Robertson has issues, he isn’t that bad. Even though his K/9 rate slipped in 2017, he was still striking out nearly 11 batters per nine. He finished with a 3.47 ERA, and 3.58 FIP last season. Not impeccable numbers, but still solid and more than useful. He has also proved to be quite durable in recent years; Robertson has tossed at least 60 innings in every season since 2010. Even if Robertson is not the upper-echelon guy the Nats wanted, he is still an upgrade over the current options in DC. By acquiring Robertson, everyone can shift down a spot. He might not be worth his current contract, but that doesn’t make him a terrible pitcher. He is an above average arm, and with Dusty Baker’s bullpen acumen, Robertson just adds another quality option at the back end of this potent Nationals team.
The Nationals could sign Greg Holland, but he seems like a ticking time bomb. Trading for a guy like Zach Britton would cost a lot, which doesn’t seem likely after all the Nats gave up to get Eaton. Robertson and Kelley finished with very similar WARs last season. They are very comparable pitchers at this point, which I know doesn’t inspire Nationals fans. But isn’t it better to have two Shawn Kelley-types than one? At the very least, that gives the Nats a better chance of finding a decent one-two punch in the eighth and ninth inning. And since it doesn’t seem likely that they could get a better option than Shawn Kelley 2.0, GM Mike Rizzo might as well do the best he can at this point.
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