After another playoff exit, the Washington Nationals are already looking to upgrade their already stellar rotation. GM Mike Rizzo quickly picked up Gio Gonzalez’s option this offseason, but now he is reportedly hunting bigger game: Chicago’s Chris Sale.
The Gio Gonzalez deal makes total sense; he is consistent, injury-free, and cheap. Gonzalez has posted a FIP under 3.80 each of the last seven seasons, he has topped 31 starts in six of those seasons, and his $12 million option is quite frankly a steal at just 31 years old. Gio posted a 2.9 WAR in 2016 (according to Fangraphs). Two years ago, Brandon McCarthy hit the free agent market at 31 years old, also coming off a 2.9 WAR season. He signed a four-year, $48 million deal with Los Angeles, even though McCarthy was a much more injury prone and a much less accomplished pitcher than Gio at the time of his free agency. Combine that contract with this incredibly weak starting pitching free agent class in 2016, there is no telling which team would’ve become so desperate for pitching an offered Gonzalez the world. No matter what fans think of him, it was a no-brainer to keep Gonzalez, especially with injury history of the rest of the staff.
Theoretically, the Gio signing would round out the Nationals’ rotation: Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Tanner Roark, Joe Ross, and Gonzalez, with Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and AJ Cole waiting in the wings. That’s not a bad group at all. It’s actually the same group that combined to finish second in baseball last year in starter ERA. And if you’re an optimist, that number should even improve in 2017 if the Nationals can get more innings from Strasburg and Ross, and improved pitching from the three youngsters in the minors.
But per usual, Rizzo is never finished. Which is a good thing; there is no reason to settle on the team you have, especially when it continues to come up short. In the last few days, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports has reported that Washington is looking into the availability of Sale and Archer.
Sale just wrapped up another stellar season, finishing with a 3.34 ERA and a 9.25 K/9 rate across 226.2 innings pitched. Over the last five years, he has totaled a whopping 26.2 WAR, good for fourth in baseball over that time (Scherzer is second at 27.7). He also is in the middle of an incredibly team-friendly deal, with three years and just $39.5 million remaining. But this enticing combination of dominant numbers and cheap contract will make him very expensive in trade negotiations.
For someone of Sale’s caliber, the White Sox would likely start the negotiations off with Trea Turner. I just cannot see the Nationals parting with him. Prospects tend to be overvalued, but Turner has shown he is more than that. Not only did he live up to the ridiculously high expectations heaped upon him (he batted .342/.370/.567 in 73 games), Turner provided the spark that ignited this team over the second-half of the season. His defense and athleticism gives the team so much flexibility in the field, and his power and speed in the leadoff spot changes the dynamic of this offense. Sale is great pitcher, but the dropoff from him to someone like Gio is not nearly as steep as it is from Turner to Ben Revere or Michael Taylor.
So if Turner isn’t an option, who is? The once untouchable Giolito has seen his stock fall after getting shellacked over four starts in the majors. Lopez has a live arm, but hasn’t shown much consistency. And Victor Robles is clearly talented and put together a nice 2016, but he is still only 19 years old and no sure thing at all. Those three players are top-end prospects, but they don’t appear to be “must-haves” for the White Sox.
Because the market is incredibly thin on pitching, the White Sox might feel like this is their best shot to bring in a haul of prospects. But with three years left on Sale’s deal, this isn’t their last chance. They might as well continue to build around him, and if doesn’t work out, dangle him again. Those prospect packages won’t be any worse come July. As of right now, I’m not sure if the Nats and White Sox match up as trade partners. Neither side seems desperate enough to make this type of blockbuster deal.
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